DFDS Q3 2024 Interim Report – Working Through Headwinds

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“Despite market headwinds, we continued in line with our organic growth ambitions to protect and grow volumes in Q3 on the back of our network strength,” says Torben Carlsen, CEO.

Q3 2024

  • Revenue up 11% to DKK 8.0bn Organic growth was 4%
  • EBIT reduced 11% to DKK 785m
  • Adjusted free cash flow of DKK 396m
  • CO2 ferry emission intensity lowered 1.6%

Outlook 2024 (updated 1 November 2024)

  • EBIT of DKK 1.5-1.7bn
  • Revenue growth of 8-10%
  • Adjusted free cash flow of around DKK 1.2bn

Read the Q3 2024 interim report here:

DFDS Terminates EKOL Acquisition

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In April 2024, DFDS entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire the international transport network of Ekol Logistics.

As certain contractual conditions (company announcement no. 24 of 9 April 2024), have not been satisfied by the agreed deadline, DFDS has terminated the share purchase agreement and the transaction will consequently not take place.

DFDS 2024 Outlook Lowered by Market Slowdown and Termination EKOL Acquisition

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DFDS’ EBIT outlook range for 2024 is revised following results below expectations driven by mainly a more widespread slowdown in Europe than previously expected as well as intensified competition in northern European land transport markets and the Mediterranean freight ferry market.

The current market conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the year whilst a rebound in activity was previously expected for the rest of the year.

The termination of the share purchase agreement to acquire the international transport network of EKOL Logistics may moreover in Q4 2024 entail some financial impact.

As a consequence, the EBIT 2024 outlook range is lowered to DKK 1.5-1.7bn from previously DKK 1.7-2.1bn, and the outlook for the adjusted free cash flow is changed to around DKK 1.2bn from previously around DKK 1.5bn.

The revenue growth 2024 outlook is changed to 8-10% from previously 8-11% as revenue from EKOL Logistics was previously included in the revenue outlook.

DFDS October Volumes: Solid Freight Growth

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Ferry – freight:

  • Total volumes in October 2024 were 10.3% above 2023 and up 5.6% adjusted for the addition of Strait of Gibraltar routes in 2024 and closure of the Calais-Tilbury route in 2023.
  • North Sea, Channel, and Baltic Sea volumes were all above 2023 following solid growth on most routes. Mediterranean volumes were in October also above 2023.
  • For the last twelve months 2024-23, the total transported freight lane metres increased 6.7% to 41.0m from 38.5m in 2023-22. The increase was 3.4% adjusted for the addition of Strait of Gibraltar routes and the Calais-Tilbury route closure.

Ferry – passenger:

  • The number of passengers in October 2024 was 33.0% above 2023 and down 1.3% adjusted for the addition of the Strait of Gibraltar routes. The adjusted decrease was due to smaller variances across routes.
  • The number of cars was 16.0% above 2023 and down 10.9% adjusted for Strait of Gibraltar.
  • For the last twelve months 2024-23, the total number of passengers increased 45.9% to 6.5m compared to 4.5m for 2023-22. The increase was 6.1% adjusted for Strait of Gibraltar.

Italy – Egypt RoRo Service Imminent

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DFDS is set to launch its previously announced freight service between Damietta, Egypt, and Trieste, Italy. This weekly service will operate with one of the smaller RoRo vessels, such as the OLYMPOS SEAWAYS, which has a capacity of 200 trailers and 3,214 lane metres.

Northbound shipments will primarily consist of perishables, while the southbound route will accommodate a variety of cargo. There is no direct competition from other ferry services, and although container lines operate in the region, their slower speeds make them less competitive.

The service is expected to commence before the end of the year.

DFDS September Volumes: Continued Freight Growth

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Ferry – freight:

  • Total volumes in September 2024 were 4.4% above 2023 and up 1.0% adjusted for the addition of Strait of Gibraltar routes in 2024 and closure of the Calais-Tilbury route in 2023.
  • North Sea volumes were below 2023 following mixed activity levels across the route network.
  • Mediterranean volumes were in September above 2023 with higher volumes on all routes.
  • Channel volumes continued in September to be above 2023. Baltic Sea volumes were overall above 2023.
  • For the last twelve months 2024-23, the total transported freight lane metres increased 5.6% to 40.7m from 38.5m in 2023-22. The increase was 2.8% adjusted for the addition of Strait of Gibraltar routes and the Calais-Tilbury route closure.

Ferry – passenger:

  • The number of passengers in September 2024 was 39.4% above 2023 and down 2.7% adjusted for the addition of the Strait of Gibraltar routes. The adjusted decrease was due to smaller variances across routes.
  • The number of cars was 22.0% above 2023 and down 8.2% adjusted for Strait of Gibraltar.
  • For the last twelve months 2024-23, the total number of passengers increased 43.8% to 6.4m compared to 4.5m for 2023-22. The increase was 6.5% adjusted for Strait of Gibraltar.

DFDS Q2: higher revenues offset by challenging environment

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The Q2 results were below expectations in spite of organic growth and increased revenue. 

Trend: Freight Ferry down, Passenger ferry up. 

 Main elements: 

  • Revenue up 9% to DKK 7.6bn 
  • EBIT reduced 28% to DKK 519m 
  • Ferry Q2 EBIT decreased 21% or DKK 133m to DKK 508m driven by lower freight result 
  • Logistics Q2 EBIT decreased 41% or DKK 60m to DKK 85m driven by margin pressures, shift in customer flows, and underperformance in Nordic Cold Chain. 
  • EBITDA decreased 10% or DKK 137m following lower results in both the Ferry Division and the Logistics Division. 
  • Freight Ferry EBITDA down 8% or DKK 60m excluding DKK 54m decrease in oil spread hedging income. Organic decrease driven by rate pressures and adverse cost development 
  • Passenger EBITDA up DKK 25m due to higher volumes and spending in Channel. 

  Comments from CEO Torben Carlsen: 

  • We revised the earnings outlook for 2024 while maintaining the adjusted free cash flow outlook. 
  • The top priorities for the rest of the year are to continue to protect our key ferry market positions and turn Logistics’ earnings trend around. 
  • In parallel with addressing these priorities, we will continue to unlock the value of our expanded network and to move our green transition forward. 
  • We continued in Q2 to protect our strategic Baltic and Channel ferry market positions in market environments with rate pressure from overcapacity and limited volume growth. Our ability to fully pass on cost increases is therefore currently reduced. 
  • We are confident that the short-term protection of our route network will ensure long-term growth and resilience as markets over time move to rebalance supply and demand. 
  • A large part of our Logistics’ network is performing well in the face of a challenging market environment with heightened margin pressure and large shifts in customer flows in our Belgian and Dutch operations. Key focus areas in the rest of the year are to further adapt the cost base to the current pricing environment and to grow volumes organically. 
  • In addition to market impacts, Logistics’ Q2 result was lowered by underperformance of the Nordic Cold Chain business unit. We expect to complete the ongoing turnaround of the Nordic unit by year-end. 
  • Overall, we expect Logistics Division’s Q3 result to remain below 2023 while the Q4 2024 result is expected to exceed 2023. 

Outlook 2024 

  • The EBIT outlook range was lowered to DKK 1.7-2.1bn from previously DKK 2.0-2.4bn following a Q2 result below expectations and continued market headwinds expected for the rest of year.  
  • Revenue growth of 8-11% (unchanged) 
  • The adjusted free cash flow outlook is unchanged around DKK 1.5bn. 

 Green Strategy 2024-2030 

  • 45% reduction in ferry emission intensity. 
  • Six green ferries in operation by the end of 2030. 
  • 75% reduction of land emission intensity. 

 


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DFDS July volumes: Freight up 9%

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Ferry – freight:  

  • Total volumes in July 2024 were 9.4% above 2023 and up 6.3% adjusted for the addition of Strait of Gibraltar routes in 2024 and closure of the Calais-Tilbury route in 2023. 
  • North Sea volumes were just above 2023 as volumes between the Continent and the UK picked up offsetting lower automotive volumes. 
  • Mediterranean volumes were in July above 2023 driven by higher volumes between Türkiye and France. 
  • Channel volumes continued in July to be above 2023 as did volumes on the Baltic Sea routes. 
  • For the last twelve months 2024-23, the total transported freight lane metres increased 4.1% to 40.4m from 38.8m in 2023-22. The increase was 2.0% adjusted for the addition of Strait of Gibraltar routes and the Calais-Tilbury route closure. 

Ferry – passenger: 

  • The number of passengers in July 2024 was 40.0% above 2023 and down 3.1% adjusted for the addition of the Strait of Gibraltar routes. 
  • The adjusted decrease was due to lower Channel and Baltic Sea volumes.  
  • The number of cars were 24.7% above 2023 and down 4.4% adjusted for Strait of Gibraltar. 
  • For the last twelve months 2024-23, the total number of passengers increased 30.8% to 5.8m compared to 4.4m for 2023-22. The increase was 6.6% adjusted for Strait of Gibraltar. 

End of space charter agreement DFDS – P&O Ferries

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DFDS will leave the space charter agreement with P&O Ferries covering the Channel’s Dover-Calais route. 

With P&O Ferries’ recent agreement to enter into an additional and separate space charter agreement with the third ferry operator on Dover-Calais, Irish Ferries, the terms of a continuing space charter arrangement would change. 

The space charter agreement was entered into in May 2021 and will end when the contractual notice period is complete at the end of August 2024. 

Source: DFDS 

DFDS June volumes: continued growth for both freight and passengers

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Ferry – freight:  

  • Total volumes in June 2024 were 5.8% above 2023 and up 0.9% adjusted for the addition of Strait of Gibraltar routes in 2024 and closure of the Calais-Tilbury route in 2023. 
  • North Sea volumes were below 2023 as higher volumes on the Swedish routes were offset by lower temperature controlled volumes, mainly food, between the Continent and the UK. 
  • Mediterranean volumes were also in June above 2023 driven by higher volumes on all routes. 
  • Channel volumes continued in June to be above 2023 as did volumes on the Baltic Sea routes. 
  • For the last twelve months 2024-23, the total transported freight lane metres increased 2.8% to 40.2m from 39.1m in 2023-22. The increase was 1.0% adjusted for the addition of Strait of Gibraltar routes and the Calais-Tilbury route closure. 

Ferry – passenger 

  • The number of passengers in June 2024 was 46.2% above 2023 and up 11.1% adjusted for the addition of the Strait of Gibraltar routes.  
  • The adjusted increase continued to be driven mainly by higher Channel volumes. 
  • The number of cars were 26.2% above 2023 and up 3.6% adjusted for Strait of Gibraltar. 
  • For the last twelve months 2024-23, the total number of passengers increased 26.2% to 5.5m compared to 4.3m for 2023-22. The increase was 8.6% adjusted for Strait of Gibraltar.